Private High-Speed Rail Coming to Germany: What to Expect by 2028

Introduction

If you regularly travel between German cities by train, there could be good news on the horizon. From 2028, Italian high-speed rail operator Italo — a private competitor to state-owned Trenitalia in Italy — is set to launch services on German long-distance routes. For expats who rely on trains to explore Germany, commute between cities, or travel to neighboring countries, this could eventually mean more choice and, potentially, lower fares. But how much will really change? The Italian experience offers both reasons for optimism and a note of caution.

How Italo Changed the Rail Market in Italy

When Italo entered the Italian high-speed rail market in 2012, it broke a state monopoly and triggered a significant shift. Competition with Trenitalia led to fare reductions of up to 40% on some routes, more frequent departures, and noticeable improvements in on-board service quality. Passengers on the busy Rome–Milan corridor, for example, saw ticket prices drop substantially within just a few years. The Italian model is now frequently cited in European transport policy discussions as a success story for rail liberalization.

What This Could Mean for Germany

Germany's long-distance rail market is currently dominated almost entirely by Deutsche Bahn (DB). While DB has invested in new ICE trains and expanded its network, it has also faced persistent criticism over delays, cancellations, and pricing. The arrival of a private competitor like Italo could pressure DB to improve service and reconsider its pricing strategy — particularly on high-traffic corridors such as Berlin–Munich, Hamburg–Frankfurt, or Cologne–Berlin.

However, experts caution that the German rail market presents unique challenges. Access to infrastructure — the tracks, stations, and maintenance facilities — is controlled by DB Infrastruktur, a subsidiary of Deutsche Bahn. Critics argue this creates a structural conflict of interest that could disadvantage new entrants. Regulatory oversight from the Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency) will be key to ensuring fair competition.

A Reality Check: Not Every Route Will Benefit

The Italian experience also showed that competition does not benefit all passengers equally. Italo concentrated its services on the most profitable high-speed corridors, leaving smaller cities and regional routes largely untouched. A similar pattern is likely in Germany: the biggest improvements in price and frequency will probably be felt on the busiest intercity routes, while travelers in less-connected areas may see little change.

For expats living in major cities like Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt, or Cologne, the potential gains are more realistic. Those in smaller towns or relying on regional services should not expect a dramatic shift.

Frequently Asked Questions

When exactly will Italo start running trains in Germany?

According to current reports, Italo aims to begin operations in Germany from 2028. No specific launch routes have been officially confirmed yet. The timeline may shift depending on regulatory approvals and infrastructure negotiations.

Will ticket prices definitely go down?

There are no guarantees. Competition tends to push prices down on heavily used routes, as seen in Italy. However, the actual impact will depend on how many routes Italo serves, the level of regulatory support for fair track access, and how Deutsche Bahn responds competitively. It is reasonable to be cautiously optimistic, but not to expect dramatic changes overnight.

Conclusion and Next Steps

The entry of Italo into the German rail market is a development worth watching, especially for expats who travel frequently by train. While 2028 is still several years away, the precedent set in Italy suggests that genuine competition can benefit passengers. For now, the most practical step is simply to stay informed as route announcements and regulatory decisions unfold. In the meantime, tools like the DB Navigator app, Trainline, or Omio remain your best options for finding competitive rail fares across Germany and Europe.

Source: tagesschau